GEOPOLITICAL RISKS 2024

Geopolitical risks in 2024 are witnessed by the interplay of complex factors like political instabilities, social movements, economic changes in different nations, geographical and biological changes, and international relations. Parameters of analysis of the events happening across various sections, regions, major powers, and worldwide trends have shaped the geographical landscape. From tensions between major powers to regional conflicts, cybersecurity threats, climate changes, political instability, and pandemic fallout, each aspect contributes to the overall risk profile of the world in 2024. Everyone is aware of the Israel-Palestine war in October 2023, which possessed the Israeli's demand for security long back in 1948, as an unfriendly locale against the Palestinian states for a state of their possession. Israel establishing Father David Ben Gurion announced the advanced State of Israel on May 14, 1948, building up a secure sanctuary for Jews escaping mistreatment and looking for national domestic on arrival to which they cite profound ties over eras. Innovation will surpass AI administration in 2024 as administrative endeavors waver, and tech companies stay generally unconstrained and distant. More AI models and instruments spread past the control of government. But first, let's understand the concept of geopolitical risks.

What are geopolitics and what are its risks?

Geopolitics is the branch of political geography that studies the world's geographical regions and the relationship between different countries representing their political relations across borders. It is the reflection of the political decisions and processes that are affecting the land and people living on it in various ways. We can say it is the physical features of a country's relationship and the people living in it. Risks in geopolitics or we can say Geopolitical risks are influenced by tensions which include trade relations, security agreements on borders, alliances, cyber-crimes, and businesses. It includes country-level uncertainties like commercial percussions, disruption in the supply chain, reputational wars, currency fluctuations, etc.  

Possible geopolitical risks evolving in 2024 are: 

1. Tensions between major powers: Relations between countries like the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union could remain strained, with potential flashpoints including trade disputes, territorial disputes, and competition for global influence.
2. Regional conflicts: Ongoing conflicts or new flare-ups in regions like the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe, or the South China Sea could escalate, potentially drawing in major powers and destabilizing the affected regions.
3. Cybersecurity threats: Increased reliance on digital infrastructure could make countries more vulnerable to cyberattacks, whether from state-sponsored actors, criminal organizations, or hacktivist groups, leading to disruptions in critical systems and tensions between affected countries.
4. Climate-related challenges: Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and other climate change impacts could exacerbate existing tensions over resource scarcity, migration, and territorial disputes, leading to conflicts or humanitarian crises.
5. Political instability: Domestic political unrest, protests, or regime changes in key countries could disrupt regional and global stability, potentially leading to increased volatility in financial markets and international relations.
6. Pandemic fallout: While the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic may have passed, its economic, social, and political impacts could continue to reverberate, potentially exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions and creating new challenges for global cooperation.

One important risk in 2024 revolves around the anxiety between major powers mainly, the USA, China, Russia and the European countries. These global players often find themselves in the issues involving trade, territorial disputes and competition for global influence as well as position. the United States and China rivalry relations, has been highlighted point for the shaping of global geopolitics. Trade issues, technology competitions, and strategic disagreements over the issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea persist, raising concerns about the potential for escalation into more significant conflicts. The Russia - Ukraine conflict in February 2022, has been the limelight, witnessed global attention along with destruction of life and property. The war between both countries have led to humanitarian crisis. It has also made rise in risk of greater exposure of Capital flows, trade and commodity markets worldwide. The war between Russia and Ukraine were going on for several years, along with geopolitical implications. The tensions between Russian and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, political and military alliance from Europe and North America) for some time, and Russia conquest to grab Ukraine has brittle the relations between the NATO and Russia since cold war. The relations became sensitive when the aid of finance and military was provided to Ukraine by the NATO especially by the US and putting economic sanctions on Russia. The war led to direct global impact, bringing out devastating consequences. The pride and prejudice situation of the President Vladimir Putin has still not put an end to the war. 

Russia's assertive foreign policy directly influenced Europe and the Middle East, led to uncertainties in regional stability, and strained its relations with Western powers. The European Union faces internal challenges as well as including Brexit fall (the era when the United Kingdom formally declared separation from the European Union), political fragmentations, and economic disparities among member states. Regional disputes have been the main feature of volatility in the geopolitics of 2024. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East such as the Syrian Civil War, the Yemini Conflict, and tensions between Iran and its neighbours, continue to destabilize the region and draw its external actors. The territorial dispute between China and its neighbours such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan raised the maritime incidents and regional instability in the South China Sea. 

The worldwide expansion stun that started in 2021 will proceed to apply a political and financial drag in 2024. Huge, intriguing rates caused by resolved expansion will moderate development around the world. The government will have little scope to react on stun on the important matters of inflation which results in stretched budgets, social turmoil, and political drama. The economies of the world may experience one-sided GDP growth avoiding the other features of the standard of living among its citizens. During the 2019, pandemic many countries experienced economic fallout, recession, unemployment, and debt, which may compound social disparities and political flimsiness. Also, we could see a rise in strained worldwide participation and education, questioning the adequacy of multilateralism intending for future emergencies such as pandemics, climate change, and cybersecurity threats. 

Climate change has been an important issue in the form of weather events such as El Nino waves the world is experiencing, rising sea levels, species extinction, resource replenishment, melting polar caps and often occurring natural calamities at different places. This is due to playing havoc with nature and disturbing its natural existence. Immediate need for action is required in this aspect. Cybersecurity threats have emerged as an important geopolitical risk in recent years and 2024 is no exception. The increasing digitalization and its users have made countries more vulnerable to cyber threats from state-sponsored pretenders, criminal organizations, and hackers. Not only people these attacks can target the government, intellectual agencies, the country's security, financial systems, and businesses. Also, different countries are using this as a weapon against their enemy neighbors. Strong steps against cyber-attacks have always been a challenge for the government, complicating efforts to deter such actions and hold perpetrators accountable.

At last, I would conclude in 2024 and the coming years, we could only see a rise in geopolitical risk which we can say is a threat to humanity and the globe. There are multifaceted and interconnected risks, reflecting the complex challenges facing the international community. Multiple factors like tiff between major powers, climatic conditions, social threats, cyber-attacks, and many more are responsible for the rise in geopolitical threatening conditions which may have a long effect on the people worldwide. The political disputes, enmity, and urge to get more have consequently made us fall into these risks. Understanding and managing these risks requires proactive diplomacy, conflict resolution, cooperation, and resilience-building efforts at global, regional and national level.